TRENDS
Regarding institutions
- There will continue to be a rise in the number of regulated and supervised institutions in the intermediation with this segment, using the different paths mentioned, and with a tendency to become institutions with the broadest possible range of products and services.
- Cooperative institutions will continue with their processes of reinforcement and submission to a supervision that has the technical capacity and sufficient means to guarantee their effectiveness in those countries in which some awareness appears to have sprung up regarding the need for such a process. However, it does not appear that this awareness is going to spread to all regions, whereby many countries will continue to be without a specific prudential regulation and the supervision of a competent body. It does not seem likely that there will be an increase in the overall number of cooperative institutions; it might in fact decrease, but there will be an ever greater percentage overall that will submit to the aforementioned supervision.
- Public first-tier banks will continue to be in a minority, although depending on the nature of each government they will possibly increase their presence in certain countries, which will distort the industry's development.
- The transnationalisation of institutions is set to continue, especially in those regions, such as Asia, in which their size favours this process.
- NGOs will continue their process of upgrading to a regulated and supervised financial institution in mature markets; they will retain their legal status in those countries in which the industry has yet to develop, or in those regions that have not achieved a suitable level in the offer of financial services, as in rural areas in most countries. This process will be upheld until regulated and supervised financial institutions make their appearance. The question mark regarding institutions of this nature involves their future in certain Asian countries that are attracting savings and which are large in size and business turnover, both in lending and in savings. This situation poses a high risk for small savers, although no serious problems have so far come to light, but there does not seem to be a political will to include them within the regulated and suitably supervised sphere, whereby this future is difficult to envisage.
In view of what has been said, one may surmise that the present and still widely-accepted view of microfinance as a separate world from a country's financial system will gradually be replaced by the consideration of intermediation with microenterprises as yet another business segment for financial institutions, on a par with other customer segments.
